I'm no expert on this topic, I'm just an idiot on the internet.

After a few days (2-3?) of the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 20th of February, I got the distinct feeling that Russia will lose the invasion and Ukraine will win the conflict. This is not a surprising feeling, as the invasion reportedly started bad for Russia and many online people are very enthusiastic for the Ukraine side.

What concerns me about the current affairs, is the functioning of my connection with the rest of society: I see it as at most important, that one can sympathize, understand others and has the ability to somewhat verify information. Otherwise, rational decisions regarding communities and persons are severely hampered. If this is not possible, one can do only one thing: act the way you want the world to be, regardless of the actual impact, one has (aka. acting blindly).

Let's assume one has to predict, who will win the Ukraine/Russia conflict? Will it be Russia or will it be Ukraine? What concerns me the most are two factors, considering 4 condition.

The conditions are:

• Falsely predicting a Russian victory is equally harmful as falsely predicting an Ukraine victory. Pessimism by default is therefore not an option. ✌️
• We look only at current actual deployment or ready military capabilities at and near Ukraine. We therefore ignore further military capabilities of Russia, that cannot be deployed in reasonable time (i.e. the next day starting from 7th of March). All of Russia's air capabilities (aircraft and helicopters) are considered ready military capabilities. 🪖
• If Russia uses nuclear nukes against Ukraine, the result is not conclusive. I would consider this an Ukraine victory, because I think, Russia would only send nukes, if a conventional victory is at high risk. Also, I suspect, that this would lead to a defeat of Russia in the long term from a geopolitical perspective. I am not interested in the probability, that Russia nukes Ukraine. I just don't care. 💤
• I'm not really following the stuff like a scientist. I'm just binge-watching and reading the Ukraine news brainlessly. This is definitely not helping my mental state. 🤪

The concerning factors:

• I was not able to find much relevant fake news and this should be bad. Informational capabilities are getting bigger and bigger globally. Deep fake images and videos, manipulated media, forged media, media bubbles etc. are on the rise. This conflict should have a ton of relevant fake news, which hints to the fact, that I am completely unable to handle it.
• The emotional state of mind is influenced by many things and I think, that I have derailed to an unstable state of mind, that influences my decision-making.

An example of irrelevant fake news, was the reportedly 13 soldier killed on Snake Island. On 7th of March it is assumed, that the soldiers were in fact captured and not killed. Relevance for the conflict? Zero 🍻

Goals

I want to understand myself more in the context of the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and therefore I'm starting to write things done starting with 7th of march. I also want to learn from this whole event. If I am wrong regarding my impressions, it is important to know the errors and to learn from these. Writing down helps to find my errors in the future. Publishing the article, will create a humiliating emotion, that should help me to learn from the mistakes made during this conflict.

This is not about becoming a military expert. I am not one, and I will not become one. Assume, that I do know nothing of this topic, except for false information. A major part of this whole subject is about emotions and not facts. This is only a diary, that helps me to remember things.

Methodology

I will probably update this article daily. Each update will have its own chapter, and I will try to not modify its meaning after it is created.

Every chapter has to state my assumed probability for an Ukraine victory, and has to explain the reasoning for the stated probabilities. The goal of stating the probability is to document the point in time, when I consider my prediction incorrectly or when I'm getting sure, that my predictions were correct.

Definition Of Ukraine Victory

Ukraine achieves a victory, if Russia is not able to form the government of Ukraine or if significant territory is still controlled by entities, that are viewed as being the native resistance of Ukraine. The territory is hard to quantify, but holding more than half of west Ukraine (west of Dnieper river) is considered enough.

Offenders are generally expected to be stronger than defenders, therefore, it is expected that a successful defense may lead to territorial loss.

Defenders are generally expected to be stronger than offenders, therefore it is expected that a successful defence may lead to territory loss. Considering the fact, that Russia is attacking Ukraine's capital from the start, I do not consider territorial gains alone as a win condition for Russia.

For context, I consider, that the USA and its allies lost the War in Afghanistan. Seemingly, the coalition was not able to control half the country. It was able to establish an official government, but it did not control enough territory, in order to represent the whole country.

If I remember correctly (I'm too lazy to look it up), the allies were also losing territory in the years right before the end of the war. A seven year old presentation hold by a former German soldier seems also to show, that a loss in Afghanistan, was not that unexpected.

History Of Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory

Starting Point

I will only note some information regarded the conflict I saw, that are relevant before the 7th of march. What did you expect? I have a life, you know?

• Ukraine resistance did not just collapse.
• Russia's advance showed a lot of neglect. This was the main point, that started the whole notion of Ukraine winning.
• The geometry of Russia controlled area, did show a relatively small amount of pushes. I would have expected larger amount of 'spears' on Ukraine's transportation infrastructure. I did not expect large amounts of territorial gains, but I did expect a larger amount of 'spears' (at least small ones).
• Russia did not gain control of airspace.
• Ukraine is similar in size as Afghanistan and has a relatively big economy. Invading and holding such a country seems to be a mess by default in general. The invader has the advantage of being right next to the invaded, but third party supporters are also right next to the country.

The Main Counterpoints To An Ukraine Victory:

• Not even 2 weeks have passed by. If one just takes a map of the Ukraine conflict, and replays it fast day by day, the emotional prospect of winning does not seem that good.
• To my understanding, the Russian air fleet is humongous. This is important, because systems like Stingers cannot shoot down such aircraft, if they decide to fly high enough (also this may limit the aircraft capabilities). Ukraine has anti-aircraft systems in order to shoot down such high-flying aircraft, and maybe could shoot down a very large portion of it, under ideal conditions, but nether-less, the air-fleet should be able to just hand the victory to Russia. This did not happen yet. I do not know the reasons, but maybe Russia is not willing to pay the cost of such an airstrike or, they may not even be able to do such a strike (do not know why this should be the case). Maybe the air-fleet will dominate Ukraine sooner or later, we'll see. I suspect, that most propaganda and fake news of the west is regarding this point.
• The same goes for Russia's artillery and long range rocket systems.
• If Russia wants to win, it will win. The primary reason for Russia's loss, would be an unwillingness to fight.
• Information about Russia and Russia's victories are hard to come by.
• Information about and from Ukraine is filtered or delayed.

Start Of Conflict

• Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory: 50%
• Reason: Weird Feeling And The Numbers In Comparison To The Afghanistan War

2022-03-05

• Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory: 60%
• Reason: Do not remember it.

2022-03-06

• Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory: 50%
• Reason: Do not remember it. I think, one reason was the fact, that an ambush on Ukraine a convoy (to Mariupol?) was reported the first time, which was not reported beforehand.

2022-03-07

• Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory: 40%
• Reason: the Ukraine reportedly started (somewhat successful) counter-offensives, but the reported ones are not that many or big and Russia made some advances regarding the front and supply. This increases chaos and makes it harder to predict things.
• I do not believe any reasoning regarding the sanctions. Also, Iran, for example, did not collapse, because of the sanctions.
• Hints of massive political instability in Russia: Currently, I am too lazy to evaluate the source or its content, so I am not considering this for now, but: the source states, that Russia is comfortable with the idea of being isolated in the world indefinitely. If this would really be the case, this would mean from my personal view, that Russia has already lost the war from an emotional point of view. BUT as stated previously, I am ignoring this information for now, as I am too lazy. 🦥 🍸
• The military situation in the east is a complete desaster, also, I am guessing, that the Kharkiv, Poltava and Dnipro triangle will be a good defensive/base area for Ukraine in the east.
• Delivery of mobile rocket systems by third parties seems to be working well. I see messages from time to time regarding this with different such weapon systems from different parties. Such messages seem to contain consistent information.

2022-03-08

• Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory: 40%-50%
• Reasoning:
  • Pro Ukraine: the front is stalling more and more.
  • Pro Russia: supply lines are not collapsing and positions around Kivy are being made.
• Chaos in increasing. It's hard to understand, if this is good for Ukraine or not. If the Chaos is real (i.e. affecting every actor and not just an info processing thing), it seems to be a plus for Ukraine.
• Inconsistency of information is now more easily visible to me. Detection und understanding of fake new's scale seems to get better. Detection und understanding of fake news itself gets worse. This seems to be a net positive for my state of mind, and is all I require.
• Some infotainment:
  • Seems like I have not considered alternative maps enough, because I was watching it for entertainment:
    • https://www.youtube.com/post/UgkxF_OtvGI5MxWz7kzxM6MUv8MA5zuWYuQ1
    • https://twitter.com/JominiW
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jo4OoBm0Vis
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ouFWTnIctKI
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8fv022hkto
• Major fake news regarding situation in northern Kivy detected. Reason for this seems the ever-changing situation, sloppy info processing and the too optimistic view hold by people online, that are spreading info selectively (like myself 😜). There is also no up-to-date imagery present for the current state of the northern convoy.

2022-03-09

• Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory: 40%-60%
• Reasoning
  • Chaos increased. This could be a good or a bad thing.
  • Pro Ukraine:
    • East of Kivy defense is working.
    • Ukraine's attacks are still working.
    • Modest signs of supply chain solidification.
  • Pro Russia:
    • Russia's supply chains of east Kivy are not disrupted and seems to get solidified for now, also it is not stable yet. These supply lines absolutely need to be contested, when Russia's next bigger offensive starts.
    • Russia is preparing an offensive, and it is unclear how good this will go. Expect traumatic events.
    • No continuous 'flow' of at least small new Ukraine pushes (this could be an information warfare problem).
• Infotainment:
  • https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1500495309595725831
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJ6Q7wlp5j4
• The longer the war takes place without a pause, the higher the probability, that Russia sends a second wave of deployments. If there is no pause between the first or second deployment, this bet I'm doing is inconclusive regardless of the outcome.

2022-03-10

• Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory: 50%
• Reasoning: Frontal attack from Ukraine to north of Kivy worked.
• Infotainment:
  • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj7ezg_GkbQ
• How will clearing of clouds in sky effect the combat?
• Ambushes are seemingly still working.
• I predict, that the sanctions will not be sustained regarding oil and gas completely, but it is unclear, what this will mean.
• Russia increases used arsenal.

2022-03-11

• Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory: 60%
• Reasoning:
  • NATO knew, that a war could/would happen, according to Wikipedia. I suspected, that NATO/USA knew of this 2 years ago (there were some indirect hints from my point of view). What was new for me, because I finally moved by lazy ass, is the fact, that the every participating party knew at least starting with December 2021, that war was highly likely. I therefore suspect, that USA internally calculated a high likelihood of an Ukraine victory. I regard the public information 'before' the war, that Ukraine would not even try to resist as propaganda for now. I think, that this is finally the tipping point, where now I understand the scale and location of incorrect information. Keep in mind, that I do not assume, that this new information is indeed correct, but this illustrated me, were incorrect information can be embedded. Previously, I had a hard time understanding, what piece of information could even be considered fake.
  • Fronts are not moving.
  • The probability that an actual large Russian offensive is being prepared diminishes, the more time goes on.
  • Frontal attack from Ukraine to north of Kivy worked.

2022-03-14

• Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory: 80%

Reasoning:

• Did not really follow the thing.
• Russian movements are kind of stalling.
• Supply chain disruptions by Ukraine seems to be ensured on the north-east side.
• Russia calling for foreign fighters so late is a sign of weakness.
• Putin made more 'constructive proposals' (whatever this is) for negations. Maybe this is fake news.
• Sporadic attack with advanced equipment (guided rockets), shows that Russia is not capable on maintaining persistente complex operations, even when there are no supply chain disruptions.
• Media screaming about small and few attacks by Russians. This means Russia is not doing much.
• Bullshit talk about chemical and biological attacks Also, some propaganda regarding Ukraine attacking Belarus (source is irrelevant). If there are no demands for surrender by Russia, which are hitting emotionally, the situation should be a complete f**k up for Russia.
• Should I go on?

Opinion: WARNING: VENTING

The sh** talk about Russia doing this, because they want to ensure Russia's security is just that: B*** F****** S**** Russia has shown with its execution of the attack, that security is not a goal of Russia. They have neglected their assets, and they ignored the most important part of security: their economy. JUST F******* LOOK AT RUSSIA'S MILITARY ASSETS!1!!! Does anybody really think, that you can compensate the utter complete F****** lack of capabilities regarding non-kinetic military, with COMPLETELY F***** U* KINETIC MILITARY?

Also, guess what? What is the best way to ensure security? By not planting into your neighbours' mind, THAT WAR IS THE PRIMARILY MEANS OF ACTION. How do you do that? BY MAKING THE F****** WAR TOO EXPENSIVE! How? SEE THE F****** PREVIOUS POINT!!!1!!

By the way? Russia already acknowledged, that it does not have a chance in conventional war against NATO. SO WHY THE F*** IS RUSSIA TRYING IT!??!?

Ohh my good! NATO could have done some things better in order to prevent the war! US mean!! RUSSIA INFANTILE BABY!!1!!1 Good morning!?!1 IT'S F****** POLITICS!!1! (points to everything)

Emotionally, this speaks to me the most (warning infotainment):

• How to defeat Putin?
• Why Russian army is so weak?
• Crisis and Jubilee: What's happening in Russia?

2022-03-14

• Perceived Probability Of An Ukraine Victory: 70-80%
• Russia may get troops from outside. If this is the case, before the fight with the initial deployment is somewhat decided and Ukraine looses, then this prediction becomes inconclusive, because of its conditions.

Reasoning:

• I am forced to suspect (see conditions at the beginning of article), that Russia might not have a big really modern military.
• Indications:
  • No significant number of advanced drones (is this fake news?).
  • 'Many' regroups lately.
  • Hiding high-tech does harm international public image.
  • Russia's grab of about 500 civil airplanes, while probably not being able to secure maintenance.
• South-east is a mess for Ukraine. South-east defences barely work, but will fall. On the other hand Russia will probably pay dearly for it.
• Ukraine achieved a hard containment for the north. This is the first real partial victory.
• I am following the stuff less and less, and I am more and more lazy regarding it. Watching and reading low quality stuff does also not help.